After a rollercoaster start to April for economies, markets, and businesses everywhere, the world is now breathing a sigh of relief as Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed on imports into the world’s largest economy have been minimised and the possibility of a deep global recession has diminished.
For the world at large, a 90-day pause on the imposition of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs creates room for negotiation between all parties, not just the USA and the rest of the world but between all parties – even the penguins and seals on the Heard and McDonald islands – who were forced to rethink their economic models when there was the genuine prospect of high barriers blocking exports into an economy that dwarfs all others. There is also the opportunity for a new-look global economic order to be forged in a more considered and sustainable way (some observers suspect this was part of the POTUS agenda all along).
What can the print and packaging industry learn from all this?
It’s important that this episode is not overlooked but treated as an opportunity for print and packaging to reflect on where it is as an industry and how it can ensure a sustained and prosperous future.
Even with the spectre of an all-out trade war between the US and China – the No.2 economy behind the US based on GDP estimates from the International Monetary Fund – the decision to apply a universal 10% levy to all countries, except China, has restored a sense of stability to the global economy. The bounce back of stock markets around the world provides evidence of this.
Notwithstanding the separately imposed 25% rate for all aluminium, steel, and cars entering the US, business likes stability. Stability provides clarity and allows for forward thinking, strategic planning, and sustained investment.
Industry resilience
The Covid-19 pandemic that took hold in 2020 and the strikes at Finland’s paper mills in 2022 are two very recent examples of where uncertainty forced print and packaging to reevaluate how it worked.
They also showcased the ingenuity and fortitude of the sector. Examples include commercial printers pivoting into more lucrative and pandemic-proof markets such as packaging, and the converters of corrugated boxes, folding cartons, PS labels, and stand-up pouches that faced and embraced the challenges of increased demand, a run on materials, stock shortages, and employee absence.
Let’s hope April 2025 has a similar effect, albeit not forced upon the industry and far less dramatic. Rather, let it be the root cause of considered and sustained developments.
The industry as a whole had a measured response to the initial ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. None in print and packaging jumped to any rushed decisions or rash actions. A few suppliers made noises to reassure customers and confirm their position in the market. Others have unfortunately had to take more drastic steps, although not as a singular direct consequence of tariffs.
Those I have spoken to in recent days have acknowledged conversations taking place to consider the implications of sweeping global tariffs on their business and if loopholes exist that might be exploit (the aforementioned ingenuity in action).
Global shifts in manufacturing
It is likely Chinese printing equipment manufacturers will seek to deepen their penetration into other Asian markets and Europe now. India is already proving to be fertile ground for cheaper and functional label and packaging printing and for finishing equipment coming out of China.
Inroads are starting to be made in European markets, although resistance remains based on build quality and support and service concerns. This is being worked on and changing. You only have to look at the feedback to some of the Chinese equipment manufacturers present at drupa 2024.
At the same time, European printers and converters are opening up to the potential of achieving comparable quality and throughput from equipment purchased at a lower price point. It’s a compelling proposition. Slowly and surely we can expect the scales to be rebalanced, supply chains restructured, and more investment in China-built machinery to follow.
All eyes on the US print market
Then there is the US itself. It is a huge market for print equipment and expected to approach a value of $3.5 billion by 2028 according to figures from Smithers. That’s more than a fifth of the global value of print equipment sales expected in 2028*.
As a market renowned for a legacy machinery installation base, there is great potential and need for investment and upgrades to equipment. This makes it an important market for press manufacturers the world over, including those in Germany, Japan, and China.
While there is equipment manufacturing capacity directly in the US, it is unlikely that, had tariffs been enforced at levels suggested, this could have met demand or been ramped up sufficiently in terms of volume and machine type had high tariffs been imposed.
Now the barrier has been lowered with a 10% levy, might we see a wave of investments from the US-based printers and converters into machinery that safeguards their future and ensures sufficient capacity and flexibility to respond to future market needs?
They will need materials to print on. For the flexible packaging industry in the US, imports of materials such as PET, BOPP, BOPA, and alufoil threatened to become oppressively expensive because of US tariffs.
Might this then also drive the conversation around monomaterials and sustainability? If established materials such as PET and BOPP could so easily become unviable, an uptick in the use of recyclable PE options can be surmised. Ready to be produced domestically and in sufficient quantity, this could hasten the transition of one of the world’s largest consumers of plastics and waste generators to a more sustainable footing.
What next?
These are just a handful of examples of lessons we may – or may not – learn from the first 11 days of April 2025.
Whatever the outcome, it’s clear these events offer a valuable moment to pause, reflect, and adapt. For the print and packaging industry, it’s a chance to turn disruption into opportunity — and come back bigger, better, and more resilient.
At Think B2B Marketing, we understand how industry disruptions like tariffs impact print and packaging businesses. As specialists in your sector, we know your markets, your machinery, and the challenges you face.
Drop us a message to find out how we can help you navigate these changes and put your brand in front of the people that matter.
*The Future of Print Equipment Markets to 2028 – https://www.smithers.com/en-gb/services/market-reports/printing/the-future-of-print-equipment-markets-to-2028
